非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。     

Variation in the vertical zonality of erodibility and critical shear stress of rill erosion in China's Hengduan Mountains

Soil erodibility is an essential parameter used in soil erosion prediction. This study selected the Liangshan town watershed to quantify variation in the vertical zonality of rill erodibility (k_r) in China's ecologically fragile Hengduan Mountains. Soil types comprised of yellow–brown (soil A), purple (soil B), and dry-red (soil C) in a descending order of occurrence from the summit to the valley, which roughly corresponds to the vertical climate zone (i.e. cool-high mountain, warm-low mountain, and dry-hot valley sections) of the study area. With elevation, vertical soil zonality varied in both soil organic matter (SOM) content and soil particle-size fractions. A series of rill erosion-based scour experiments were conducted, using water discharge rates of 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, and 600 mL min^-1. Additionally, detachment rates (Dr) were measured under three hydrological conditions (the drainage, saturation, and seepage treatments). Results show that both Dr and flow shear stress (Ʈ) values increased as discharge increased. As elevation increased, the k_r values decreased, while the vertical zonality of critical shear stress (Ʈ_c) values showed no obvious variation. The highest k_r values were observed during the seepage treatment, followed by the saturation treatment then drainage treatment, indicating that variation in vertical hydraulic gradients could significantly alter k_r values. This study also found that land-use types could also alter k_r and Ʈ_c values. Further research, however, is necessary to better quantify the effects of subsurface hydrological conditions and land-use types on k_r under different soil zonalities in China's Hengduan Mountains. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to...     

Dynamic mechanisms controlling the topography of Longmenshan area

The Longmenshan fault, which defines the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is one of the steepest margins of the plateau with a sharp elevation drop of about 4 km over a distance less than 100 km across the Longmenshan fault. The mechanism which is responsible for controlling and maintaining the elevation difference is highly debated. Using multiple observations including seismic velocity model, Moho depth, effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere, we conducted a quantitative study for elucidating the contributions from crust and lithospheric mantle by an integrated analysis of lithospheric isostasy and flexure. It is shown that the topography of the Longmenshan fault is supported by both lithospheric isostasy and flexure statically, and lower crustal channel flow and mantle convection dynamically. Different mechanisms have different weights for contribution to the topography of the Songpan-Ganzi block and the Sichuan Basin. The static and dynamic support contribute roughly the same to the topographic difference of ~4 km between the two sides of the Longmenshan fault. The static topographic difference of ~2 km is mainly resulted from the lithospheric isostasy, while the dynamic one of ~2 km is contributed by the uprising of the accumulated material in the lower crust beneath the Songpan-Ganzi block and the downward drag force caused by the upper mantle convection under the Sichuan Basin. It is thus suggested that the lower crustal flow and upper mantle convection are dynamic forces which should be taken into account in the studies on the dynamics in the Longmenshan and surrounding regions.     

川西甲基卡矿床外围中酸性侵入岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及地球化学特征

在川西甲基卡矿床外围新发现了建巴村中酸性侵入岩体,为了探讨其形成时代、成岩构造背景及其成矿条件,开展了LA-ICP-MC锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学特征研究。结果表明: 该岩体的结晶年龄为(211.8±1.0) Ma; 岩石属于钙碱性-高钾钙碱性准铝质中酸性侵入岩系列,具有I型花岗岩类的特征,其物质来源可能为壳源物质与幔源物质部分熔融。地球化学特征表明其形成于后碰撞环境,与此时期内川西地区的区域性岩浆活动相对应。建巴村岩体的构造位置及岩浆活动特征指示其可能不具备形成伟晶岩矿床的条件。     

基于可靠性的海洋立管疲劳安全系数研究

综合考虑了立管疲劳安全系数取值的相关因素——立管的安全等级、设计寿命、检验周期、载荷和损伤计算方法等的不确定性,提出了基于可靠度的疲劳安全系数确定方法,筛选了用于计算波致疲劳和VIV(涡激振动)疲劳的随机变量,给出了立管波致疲劳与VIV疲劳安全系数的计算流程,并以某SCR(钢悬链线立管)为例进行了安全系数计算。结果表明,该方法的计算结果优于传统的安全系数确定方法,尤其适合于特殊工程方案或新颖设计的立管疲劳校核。     

Retrieval of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km from precise orbit of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B by analytical and numerical methods

Taking the re-entry object CZ-3B R/B (COSPAR identifier 2012-018D, NORAD catalog number 38253) as an example, retrieval of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km from its rebuilt precise orbit is studied in this paper. Two methodologies, i.e. analytical and numerical methods, are adopted in the retrieval. Basic principles of these two methodologies are briefly introduced. Based on the short-arc sparse observational data accumulated in the high accuracy re-entry prediction, orbit determinations of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B are performed sectionally, and then its precise orbit is rebuilt. According to the orbit theory, the variation of orbital semi-major axis of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B induced by atmospheric drag perturbation only is derived from the rebuilt precise orbit. In the derivation of secular change of the orbital semi-major axis of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B induced by atmospheric drag perturbation only, the time-span is set as one minute tentatively. And then retrieval results of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km by analytical and numerical methods are presented, as well as their bias deviations from the calculated results of the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere. Setting bias deviation bands, the corresponding ‘confidence coefficients’ of the retrieved atmospheric mass densities with respect to the model values are given. Average bias deviations of the retrieved atmospheric mass densities by analytical and numerical methods from the model values are also calculated respectively. On the whole, the retrieved atmospheric mass densities by numerical method approach to the model values more closely; the differences between the retrieved results and the model values are relatively smaller at the peaks of atmospheric mass densities than the other places.     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

A multiscale work-analysis approach for geotechnical structures

This paper presents a second-order work analysis in application to geotechnical problems by using a novel effective multiscale approach. To abandon complicated equations involved in conventional phenomenological models, this multiscale approach employs a micromechanically-based formulation, in which only four parameters are involved. The multiscale approach makes it possible a coupling of the finite element method (FEM) and the micromechanically-based model. The FEM is used to solve the boundary value problem (BVP) while the micromechanically-based model is utilized at the Gauss point of the FEM. Then, the multiscale approach is used to simulate a three-dimensional triaxial test and a plain-strain footing. On the basis of the simulations, material instabilities are analyzed at both mesoscale and global scale. The second-order work criterion is then used to analyze the numerical results. It opens a road to interpret and understand the micromechanisms hiding behind the occurrence of failure in geotechnical issues.     

全干涉成像的微地震定位方法研究

基于偏移成像的微地震定位方法由于可避免走时拾取误差以及可实现自动化定位等优点被广泛应用.绕射叠加方法将能量沿走时曲线聚焦到空间网格点上,进行成像时需要搜索发震时刻.干涉成像方法利用互相关提取的走时差信息可避免搜索发震时刻,但定位结果受数据信噪比的影响较大.为了进一步提高干涉成像法的定位精度,本文提出一种同时使用互相关和自相关道集的全干涉成像方法,增加的自相关道集提取的S-P走时差可降低震源-检波器方向的定位误差,提高定位精度.单井监测的理论测试和实际数据的研究结果表明,全干涉成像的定位精度高于仅使用互相关道集的干涉成像方法,同时计算效率高于绕射叠加方法.